Bayesian analysis

Bayesian benchmark analysis

Hierarchical model of 2655 XMRig per-rig submissions across 52 chips (rx/0). Estimates true per-chip per-thread hashrate with 95% credible intervals, accounting for memory channel count and speed. Sampled with PyMC + nutpie (JAX-accelerated NUTS, 4 chains × 1000 draws).

Chips analyzed
52 processor models with full memory detail
52
Rig observations
Individual submissions with DIMM detail
2655
Reference config
8 channels @ 3200 MT/s for fair comparison
8ch / 3200
Memory configuration effects (population-level)
How much memory channels and speed multiply hashrate, estimated from all rigs jointly. Each 2× increase in the predictor multiplies hashrate by the factor shown.
Memory channels (per package)Each 2x memory channels multiplies hashrate by 1.07x (95% HDI: 1.05–1.08x)
Posterior mean β = 0.096 (95% HDI:0.077–0.115)
Memory speed (MT/s)Each 2x memory speed multiplies hashrate by 1.13x (95% HDI: 1.10–1.16x)
Posterior mean β = 0.176 (95% HDI:0.134–0.219)
Model noise estimates
Residual variation within a chip and true chip-to-chip variation in the population.
Within-chip residual (σ)
Residual coefficient of variation: 14.2%
95% HDI: 0.138–0.146
Chip-to-chip population (σ_pop)
Chip-to-chip variation (population sigma): 31.1%
95% HDI: 0.258–0.377
Per-chip true hashrate (95% credible intervals)
Posterior mean per-thread hashrate with 95% HDI. Chips ranked by predicted performance at reference config (8ch/3200). Bars show HDI range; diamond = posterior mean.
AMD Ryzen 7 5700G with Radeon Graphics
774
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-4790K CPU @ 4.00GHz
745
AMD Ryzen 7 2700X Eight-Core Processor
741
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-6700K CPU @ 4.00GHz
710
AMD Ryzen 5 5600X 6-Core Processor
706
AMD Ryzen 5 5600G with Radeon Graphics
703
AMD Ryzen 9 3900X 12-Core Processor
692
AMD Ryzen 7 5800X 8-Core Processor
692
AMD Ryzen 9 5900X 12-Core Processor
687
AMD Ryzen 7 3700X 8-Core Processor
665
AMD Ryzen 5 5600 6-Core Processor
663
AMD Ryzen 9 5950X 16-Core Processor
651
AMD Ryzen 5 3600 6-Core Processor
646
AMD Ryzen 9 3950X 16-Core Processor
643
AMD Ryzen 5 5500
640
AMD Ryzen 7 2700 Eight-Core Processor
633
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-7700K CPU @ 4.20GHz
629
AMD Ryzen 7 5700X 8-Core Processor
628
AMD Ryzen 7 3800X 8-Core Processor
621
AMD Ryzen 5 3600X 6-Core Processor
607
AMD Ryzen 9 3900XT 12-Core Processor
594
AMD Ryzen 5 2600 Six-Core Processor
594
12th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-12700K
593
AMD Ryzen 7 5800X3D 8-Core Processor
589
AMD Ryzen 7 1700 Eight-Core Processor
586
AMD Ryzen 7 3800XT 8-Core Processor
584
AMD Ryzen 9 3900 12-Core Processor
568
AMD Ryzen 5 2600X Six-Core Processor
568
AMD Ryzen 5 1600 Six-Core Processor
549
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2680 v4 @ 2.40GHz
527
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2678 v3 @ 2.50GHz
498
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2690 v4 @ 2.60GHz
485
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2670 v3 @ 2.30GHz
467
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2696 v3 @ 2.30GHz
457
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2699 v3 @ 2.30GHz
451
Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8272CL CPU @ 2.60GHz
418
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2697 v2 @ 2.70GHz
412
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2673 v4 @ 2.30GHz
399
AMD EPYC 7532 32-Core Processor
390
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2650 v2 @ 2.60GHz
389
AMD EPYC 7D12 32-Core Processor
381
AMD Eng Sample: ZS1406E2VJUG5_22/14_N
377
AMD EPYC 7K62 48-Core Processor
375
AMD EPYC 7642 48-Core Processor
367
AMD Eng Sample: 100-000000894-04
356
AMD EPYC 9654 96-Core Processor
353
AMD EPYC 7B12 64-Core Processor
326
AMD EPYC 7V12 64-Core Processor
323
AMD EPYC 7742 64-Core Processor
320
AMD EPYC 7763 64-Core Processor
303
Genuine Intel(R) CPU 0000%@
259
Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8171M CPU @ 2.60GHz
243

Scale: 0–1000 H/s. HDI bars show 95% credible interval; diamond = posterior mean. See table below for exact values and reference-config predictions.

Per-chip posterior details
Full posterior summary for each chip. "Ref" columns = predicted at 8ch/3200 MT/s for fair cross-chip comparison.
CPURigsMean H/s95% HDIRef H/sRef 95% HDI
AMD Ryzen 7 5700G with Radeon Graphics25774[732, 817]875[828, 924]
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-4790K CPU @ 4.00GHz72745[718, 772]842[812, 873]
AMD Ryzen 7 2700X Eight-Core Processor40741[709, 773]838[802, 875]
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-6700K CPU @ 4.00GHz18710[669, 754]803[756, 853]
AMD Ryzen 5 5600X 6-Core Processor70706[683, 730]798[772, 826]
AMD Ryzen 5 5600G with Radeon Graphics41703[672, 734]795[760, 830]
AMD Ryzen 9 3900X 12-Core Processor46692[663, 721]782[750, 815]
AMD Ryzen 7 5800X 8-Core Processor23692[653, 731]782[738, 827]
AMD Ryzen 9 5900X 12-Core Processor116687[668, 706]776[756, 798]
AMD Ryzen 7 3700X 8-Core Processor48665[640, 692]752[723, 783]
AMD Ryzen 5 5600 6-Core Processor36663[634, 694]750[717, 785]
AMD Ryzen 9 5950X 16-Core Processor90651[631, 671]736[713, 759]
AMD Ryzen 5 3600 6-Core Processor26646[612, 681]730[692, 770]
AMD Ryzen 9 3950X 16-Core Processor55643[619, 669]728[700, 756]
AMD Ryzen 5 550075640[620, 662]724[701, 748]
AMD Ryzen 7 2700 Eight-Core Processor33633[603, 662]715[682, 749]
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-7700K CPU @ 4.20GHz3629[543, 728]711[614, 823]
AMD Ryzen 7 5700X 8-Core Processor24628[594, 663]710[671, 750]
AMD Ryzen 7 3800X 8-Core Processor34621[593, 651]702[671, 736]
AMD Ryzen 5 3600X 6-Core Processor28607[576, 639]686[651, 723]
AMD Ryzen 9 3900XT 12-Core Processor76594[576, 613]672[651, 693]
AMD Ryzen 5 2600 Six-Core Processor22594[561, 628]671[634, 710]
12th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-12700K8593[538, 653]671[608, 738]
AMD Ryzen 7 5800X3D 8-Core Processor65589[569, 610]666[643, 690]
AMD Ryzen 7 1700 Eight-Core Processor32586[558, 614]662[631, 694]
AMD Ryzen 7 3800XT 8-Core Processor14584[543, 626]661[614, 708]
AMD Ryzen 9 3900 12-Core Processor36568[543, 595]642[614, 672]
AMD Ryzen 5 2600X Six-Core Processor55568[547, 589]642[618, 666]
AMD Ryzen 5 1600 Six-Core Processor38549[525, 574]621[594, 649]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2680 v4 @ 2.40GHz78527[510, 545]596[577, 616]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2678 v3 @ 2.50GHz112498[483, 514]563[547, 581]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2690 v4 @ 2.60GHz81485[470, 501]548[531, 566]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2670 v3 @ 2.30GHz127467[454, 480]528[513, 543]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2696 v3 @ 2.30GHz140457[445, 469]517[503, 530]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2699 v3 @ 2.30GHz95451[437, 465]510[495, 525]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8272CL CPU @ 2.60GHz2418[346, 499]473[391, 564]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2697 v2 @ 2.70GHz46412[394, 431]466[445, 488]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2673 v4 @ 2.30GHz107399[388, 410]451[438, 463]
AMD EPYC 7532 32-Core Processor8390[355, 427]441[401, 483]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2650 v2 @ 2.60GHz26389[368, 413]440[416, 467]
AMD EPYC 7D12 32-Core Processor127381[372, 391]431[421, 443]
AMD Eng Sample: ZS1406E2VJUG5_22/14_N1377[293, 474]426[331, 536]
AMD EPYC 7K62 48-Core Processor9375[343, 409]424[388, 463]
AMD EPYC 7642 48-Core Processor11367[338, 398]415[382, 450]
AMD Eng Sample: 100-000000894-0469356[339, 374]403[383, 422]
AMD EPYC 9654 96-Core Processor49353[336, 371]399[380, 420]
AMD EPYC 7B12 64-Core Processor42326[312, 342]369[353, 386]
AMD EPYC 7V12 64-Core Processor73323[311, 335]365[352, 379]
AMD EPYC 7742 64-Core Processor20320[301, 341]362[340, 386]
AMD EPYC 7763 64-Core Processor33303[288, 319]342[325, 360]
Genuine Intel(R) CPU 0000%@149259[250, 268]292[282, 303]
Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8171M CPU @ 2.60GHz1243[190, 308]275[215, 349]
Methodology
  • Model: log(per_thread) ~ Normal(log(μ_chip) + β_ch·log(channels) + β_sp·log(speed), σ)
  • Priors: log(μ_pop) ~ Normal(log(700), 1), σ_pop ~ HalfNormal(0.5), β ~ Normal(0, 0.5), σ ~ HalfNormal(0.3)
  • Sampler: nutpie (JAX-accelerated NUTS), 4 chains × 1000 draws + 1000 tune, target_accept=0.9
  • Data: Only XMRig submissions with full DMI memory detail (channels_per_pkg and speed_min_mts non-null)
  • Reference config: 8 channels @ 3200 MT/s — predicts what each chip would do on a fully populated octa-channel DDR4-3200 platform.